Sunday, January 13, 2008

2008 may see recession because fundamentals were ignored

Economy based on hype goes always goes bust sooner or later. We have seen it in past and probably will see it again in near future. Last time slowdown came because lots of value was given to some online business (many of them were not even business but just website/portals). It was told at that time that this is new economy cannot be valued by old accounting and financial principals. No one was really caring about the return, revenue and fixed asset etc. This time things were different. This time economy was booming because the price of the real estate were booming and house owners were having more money to spend because this boom but the fundamentals were not correct. There was no real production or drastic increase in the export etc but the public spending was going up and companies were busy selling imported products to make more and more profits. Hype was too high that even the financial institutions (one of the institutions those are too worry about giving their money to anyone on this earth if it is not secured) did not thought twice and jumped into the real estate hyped market and now facing almost bankruptcy because of the subprime crisis. Fed boss, Mr. Ben Bernanke, has issued many public warnings that 2008 might see slow down in the economy and he has also hinted that Fed might reduce the interest rate in near future. Whole world economy is closely linked to the US market (mainly because of US $ is the world currency and USA is the biggest consumer of the products) so anything going wrong might affect the world as well. This is only to be seen when the recession will come this time. But we should learn lesson from our experiences that if the fundamentals of economic boom are not correct it will bust sooner or later and we should try to avoid fall in this trap, of course if our aim is not to make short term gain from this.

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